Avian Flu vs Dow Jones

The Global Risks prediction market that we built for the World Economic Forum (aka Davos) received some attention in the Financial Times online yesterday. Here’s a link to the story.
The article mentions the brand new markets we set up for Thomson Financial, which is a partner of the WEF’s Global Risks program. These markets, designed [...]

Political predictions: Does money matter?

Play-money prediction markets can be just as accurate, if not more accurate, than their real-money counterparts. As far back as 2003, NewsFutures helped prove this point by running a large scale real-world experiment comparing its play-money NFL football predictions with those of Tradesports. Esteemed scholars David Pennock (Yahoo!) and Justin Wolfers (Wharton) analyzed the data [...]