http://newsfutures.wordpress.com News from the front-lines of the prediction market revolution. Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:00:52 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2008/04/18/how-intercontinental-hotels-group-innovates-with-newsfutures/#comment-3327 Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd « The NewsFutures Blog Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:00:52 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=38#comment-3327 [...] how it should be done: After everyone has proposed their ideas, ask everyone to bet (not vote) on which idea the [...] [...] how it should be done: After everyone has proposed their ideas, ask everyone to bet (not vote) on which idea the [...]

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/obama-and-the-wisdom-of-the-federal-crowd/#comment-3324 Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees? | Midas Oracle .ORG Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:35:18 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=130#comment-3324 [...] suggests that the SAVE Award approach just scratches the surface of the possible benefits of crowdsourcing innovation. (Noted earlier in this post at Midas Oracle.) [...] [...] suggests that the SAVE Award approach just scratches the surface of the possible benefits of crowdsourcing innovation. (Noted earlier in this post at Midas Oracle.) [...]

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/obama-and-the-wisdom-of-the-federal-crowd/#comment-3323 Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Obama’s suggestion box for federal employees? « Knowledge Problem Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:20:26 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=130#comment-3323 [...] a “wisdom of crowds” system vendor, suggests on the company blog that the SAVE Award approach just scratches the surface of the possible benefits of crowdsourcing innovation.  Here is their diagnosis and recommendation: [...] [...] a “wisdom of crowds” system vendor, suggests on the company blog that the SAVE Award approach just scratches the surface of the possible benefits of crowdsourcing innovation.  Here is their diagnosis and recommendation: [...]

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/obama-and-the-wisdom-of-the-federal-crowd/#comment-3322 caveat bettor Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:44:30 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=130#comment-3322 Betting on a president's selections still seems like "talking to the hand", at least when it comes to competitive policies (and more importantly, policy outcomes). Betting on a president’s selections still seems like “talking to the hand”, at least when it comes to competitive policies (and more importantly, policy outcomes).

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/obama-and-the-wisdom-of-the-federal-crowd/#comment-3321 Barack Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:07:24 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=130#comment-3321 [...] of the Federal crowd Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment “There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas... Share [...] [...] of the Federal crowd Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment “There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas… Share [...]

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/02/22/results-of-the-dutch-political-stock-market/#comment-3234 Le pronostic collectif, plus fiable que les sondages | Easy-paris.com Thu, 30 Oct 2008 09:11:11 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/02/22/results-of-the-dutch-political-stock-market/#comment-3234 [...] Plus proche de nous, en Hollande, un marché que NewsFutures avait mis en place pour le grand quotidien de Volkskrant lors des élections parlementaires de novembre dernier a non seulement battu les sondages mais a aussi deviné, dès que fut connu le résultat du vote, quelle coalition tripartite allait parvenir à former le nouveau gouvernement. Après quelques semaines de négociation, les chefs de partis durent se résoudre à former la coalition que les parieurs avaient pressentie. (voir ici.) [...] [...] Plus proche de nous, en Hollande, un marché que NewsFutures avait mis en place pour le grand quotidien de Volkskrant lors des élections parlementaires de novembre dernier a non seulement battu les sondages mais a aussi deviné, dès que fut connu le résultat du vote, quelle coalition tripartite allait parvenir à former le nouveau gouvernement. Après quelques semaines de négociation, les chefs de partis durent se résoudre à former la coalition que les parieurs avaient pressentie. (voir ici.) [...]

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/still-crazy-bullish-after-all-these-years/#comment-3187 David Pennock Sat, 12 Apr 2008 18:09:23 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=37#comment-3187 I remember that moment at the DIMACS workshop as well. You were the optimist in the room and, as it turns out, very prescient. I remember that moment at the DIMACS workshop as well. You were the optimist in the room and, as it turns out, very prescient.

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/political-prediction-markets-are-good-for-your-health/#comment-3183 Franklin Sun, 17 Feb 2008 19:32:24 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=34#comment-3183 Excellent point ! Well argumented. I loved betting with Bet2Give in order to help enlighten my fellow man, now I learn that it also helps me ! This is the 21st century equivalent of the famous 80's credo "Greed is Good", now we can all claim "Betting is Good". Excellent point ! Well argumented. I loved betting with Bet2Give in order to help enlighten my fellow man, now I learn that it also helps me ! This is the 21st century equivalent of the famous 80’s credo “Greed is Good”, now we can all claim “Betting is Good”.

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/political-prediction-markets-are-good-for-your-health/#comment-3180 How political prediction markets save lives | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:59:38 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/?p=34#comment-3180 [...] Participating in political prediction markets may be good for your health by virtue of reducing the killer stress caused by aggravating political outcomes over which you have very little control as a voter. In essence, you can hedge against despair, and thus reduce your political “learned helplessness”. I present this idea more completely in NewsFutures’ blog. [...] [...] Participating in political prediction markets may be good for your health by virtue of reducing the killer stress caused by aggravating political outcomes over which you have very little control as a voter. In essence, you can hedge against despair, and thus reduce your political “learned helplessness”. I present this idea more completely in NewsFutures’ blog. [...]

]]> http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2008/01/11/their-finest-hour/#comment-3171 Alexis Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:48:14 +0000 http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2008/01/11/their-finest-hour/#comment-3171 Furthermore, the NH results only concerned NH and not the whole US of A. I wouldn't think Prediction markets were restricted to NH voters. Prediction markets betters from NH were not dominant in the global US prediction market US users. Different population => different results. On the other hand polls were constructed upon NH voters not the whole US population. So the same reason for prediction inaccuracy does not work for polls. Furthermore, the NH results only concerned NH and not the whole US of A. I wouldn’t think Prediction markets were restricted to NH voters. Prediction markets betters from NH were not dominant in the global US prediction market US users. Different population => different results.
On the other hand polls were constructed upon NH voters not the whole US population. So the same reason for prediction inaccuracy does not work for polls.

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