Today, both the Financial Times and Forbes published the predictions of the Global Risks prediction market that NewsFutures built for Thomson Financial and the World Economic Forum. Here are the links to the stories:
Bird Flu may slash DJIA by over 10% – Forbes
Avian Flu and the perception of risk – Financial Times
Here’s an excerpt from the Forbes story:
The predictive market contracts … are currently forecasting the outbreak of bird flu in 22 countries in 2007, which Thomson Financial calculates will result in a fall of in the Dow Jones Industrial Index of 0.4% during the year. However should the spread of bird flu reach 60 countries it is anticipated that this would cause a fall in the Dow of over 10%.
Commenting on the data, Thomas Aubrey, Investment Management Director, Thomson Financial said: This is the first quantitative data that looks at the potential impact of bird flu and provides the global financial services community with invaluable information on this critical non-financial risk. When fed into our sector based risk indicator it will help business leaders develop a greater understanding of the risks facing their businesses and allow them to make more informed decisions to mitigate against this risk.
Every one is welcome to join the Global Risks prediction market. Participation is totally free and you’ll only risk your reputation. Follow this link to the market!