Monthly Archives: November 2007

Off to Hong Kong

I am off to Hong Kong tomorrow to deliver the keynote speech at the 9th Asia Pacific Knowledge Management Conference. My presentation about the implementation and benefits of enterprise prediction markets will be followed by an afternoon workshop.

Update: Picture of myself conducting a prediction market workshop at the City University of Hong Kong. Participants traded predictions about the red hot Hong Kong property market. Don’t be fooled by the bored look of the woman in blue, she actually made the best trades of the day! It was my first trip to Hong Kong and I was particularly moved by the superb statue of Bruce Lee on the Kowloon boardwalk. Long live the dragon!

Emile in at Hong Kong University

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The Most Heeded Futurists

Nice quote about prediction markets in The Economist’s current special issue titled The World in 2008. In an article about how futurologists have lost their cachet in the new century – too many new technologies colliding to create kale├»doscopic uncertainty – the author encourages reliance on collective forecasts rather than individual foresight:

The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probability. Will Osama bin Laden be caught in 2008? Only a 15% chance, said Newsfutures in mid-October 2007…

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