The Most Heeded Futurists

Nice quote about prediction markets in The Economist’s current special issue titled The World in 2008. In an article about how futurologists have lost their cachet in the new century – too many new technologies colliding to create kaleïdoscopic uncertainty – the author encourages reliance on collective forecasts rather than individual foresight:

The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probability. Will Osama bin Laden be caught in 2008? Only a 15% chance, said Newsfutures in mid-October 2007…

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