Bambi Francisco left CNBC’s MarketWatch last year to start Vator.tv, a highly entertaining video-based website dedicated to vetting pitches from innovator. This week, her show took a deep look at NewsFutures’ public prediction exchange (not our enterprise solutions business). Paul Martino, whose company Aggregate Knowledge is about predicting behavioral outcomes based on the aggregate actions of crowds, brought his expert point of view. All told, Bambi, Paul, and Ezra Roizen (a Vator.tv regular) “liked the company.” Check out the show by clicking the video below:
Monthly Archives: April 2008
Over the weekend, the Financial Times published a great article about America’s favorite charity-driven prediction market: our very own Bet2Give. Exploring the intersection between philanthropy and online betting requires dedication and persistence, which is another way of saying that the value proposition isn’t immediately obvious to everyone, but the FT’s article highlights an exciting new trend: Some charities are now linking to Bet2Give from their home pages, encouraging their members/donors to use our prediction market as a fund-raising tool. Cool! That’s exactly what we built it for.
There is a discordant note at the end of the article, where respected philanthropy consultant Lucy Bernholz questions whether Bet2Give’s donations aren’t just a gimmick to draw eyeballs. Well, we obviously want to grow traffic, because that translates into impact. But Lucy should realize that 95% of the money that is put into Bet2Give by its traders is eventually given to their chosen non-profits. That’s hardly a gimmick. Few non-profits, in fact, have such low overhead fees.
The article also discusses Longbets.org, another great site well worth visiting.
I had the honor this week of being a surprise keynote interviewee at the Red Herring Europe 2008 conference in Malta. Alex Vieux, the Herring’s inspirational publisher, made the impromptu decision to bring me on stage to educate the audience, filled with brilliant young entrepreneurs and venture capitalists, about the concept and virtues of prediction markets. A show of hands, afterwards, indicated that this crowd agreed we were onto something big!
Every business needs to innovate regularly, but betting on new ideas is always risky and the failure rate is high. The New York Times recently ran a detailed article about how companies can better their odds of harnessing and selecting winning new ideas, by turning to prediction markets and the wisdom of crowds.
The InterContinental Hotels case study features NewsFutures’ Idea Pageant, a proprietary prediction market variant that we designed especially with a large-scale innovation process in mind: Whereas regular “trading” markets can be used to rank a few ideas, this approach is terminally cumbersome when dealing with several dozens or hundreds of ideas… The Idea Pageant, on the contrary, is highly scalable, as this case study illustrates.
Here’s the relevant extract from the New York Times article:
At InterContinental Hotels, Zubin Dowlaty, vice president for emerging technologies, decided to create an online market last fall to “harvest and prioritize ideas” from within the hotel’s 1,000-person technology staff. “We wanted to tap the creative class that may not be able to voice their ideas,” Mr. Dowlaty said.
With InterContinental’s prediction market, players were asked to submit ideas anonymously, with a description and the benefit to customers and company. The bettors were given virtual tokens, each receiving 10 green ones to be placed on the best ideas and three red for bad ideas.
There were no limits on the number of times bettors could change their wagers as new ideas came to market, and the market was open for four weeks. The five top ideas (most green tokens), five bottom ideas (most red) and the top five bettors (most accurate, according to market consensus) were listed regularly.
The winners got $500, while second- and third-place finishers received $250 each. The winners, Mr. Dowlaty said, were engineers, analysts and contractors, not managers.
More than 200 people participated, submitting 85 ideas. One person proposed bringing back quarter-operated vibrating beds. “That one got beat down really fast,” Mr. Dowlaty said.
The winning ideas were suggestions to improve searching the company’s Web site to find and book hotel rooms. Two projects have been started as a result of the market, Mr. Dowlaty said.
We were happy to learn later that one of the two projects that got started as a result of the market featured such an innovative way of using Google Maps that Google wrote a case study about it…